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Lithuanian Electrical Energy System Ready for the Most Severe Winter

The capacity of power plants currently connected to the Lithuanian electricity system amounts to nearly 4300 MW. So, Lithuania is theoretically able to produce three times more electricity than it could consume. As most power plants burn fossil fuel such as gas and fuel oil, the use of local electricity capacities alone may come at a high cost. Considering the capacity of power plants available for consumption and the peak electricity demand of last winter and demand forecasted for this winter, it could be assumed that the Lithuanian electricity system is prepared to meet the needs of all electricity consumers even if temperatures drop very low in Lithuania and the whole region.
The short-term adequacy analysis of the electricity system for the 2014 winter season shows that electricity demand in Lithuania is anticipated to reach its highest level of 1800 MW in the fourth week of January. Despite the fact that the Lithuanian electricity system is linked with powerful connections with the electricity systems of Latvia, Estonia, Belarus and Russia, electricity imports can meet only 73% of the country’s needs.
“The well-developed electricity transmission grid and the functioning electricity market allow Lithuania to transmit electricity from neighbouring countries that have cheaper electricity generation capacities. Based on the statistical data of the last year, the electricity demand forecast and the electricity generation and grid analysis, it is expected  that this winter season imported electricity will make up 64% of total domestic consumption, with local power plants generating the remaining 36%,” says Chairman of the Board and CEO of Litgrid Daivis Virbickas.
The analysis of the statistical data of last year’s winter months and the current situation of the energy system is used to forecast electricity demand for the coming five months and evaluate the ability of the energy system to meet electricity demand. The electricity transmission system operator drafts an adequacy analysis for the winter season every autumn taking into account electricity consumption and generation data recorded at 8pm on Wednesdays. As this year Christmas Day (25 December) and New Year’s Day (1 January) fall on a Wednesday, the electricity consumption curve shows an atypical downward trend, which is unlikely to recur at the beginning of 2015.
Litgrid has presented a review on electricity consumption during the summer of 2013. According to the review, in the summer season  (from mid-April to late November)  of 2013 power plants burning fossil fuel met 21% of the country’s electricity needs, with solar and biomass power production accounting for  4%, hydro power plants generating 9% and wind power plants producing 4%. The similar electricity production trends are expected to continue into the winter months of 2014.
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